Italy is most likely to be the next country to leave the EU - according to the latest EU exit odds.
Following Italy, Greece is the next in line. The country has played cat and mouse with EU economic policies for years. However, bookies don't expect any European country to make quick decisions. The latest EU odds indicate that no country will leave the EU before 31/12/2025.
Below you will find the latest odds for leaving EU and a deeper analysis of the three most likely candidates for the next countries to leave the EU.
Here are the EU exit odds for all 27 EU member states.
You can bet on the probability of leaving the EU by clicking on the name of the bookmaker.
| # | Country | BetUK | Unibet | LeoVegas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | No country to leave EU before 31/12/2025 | 1/7 | 1/7 | 1/7 |
| 2. | Italy | 8/1 | 8/1 | 8/1 |
| 3. | Greece | 10/1 | 10/1 | 19/2 |
| 4. | Austria | 14/1 | 14/1 | 12/1 |
| 5. | Czech Republic | 14/1 | 14/1 | 12/1 |
| 6. | Poland | 14/1 | 14/1 | 12/1 |
| 7. | Hungary | 17/1 | 17/1 | 13/1 |
| 8. | France | 20/1 | 20/1 | 14/1 |
| 9. | Netherlands | 20/1 | 20/1 | 14/1 |
| 10. | Portugal | 20/1 | 20/1 | 14/1 |
| 11. | Spain | 20/1 | 20/1 | 14/1 |
| 12. | Cyprus | 25/1 | 25/1 | 16/1 |
| 13. | Denmark | 25/1 | 25/1 | 16/1 |
| 14. | Germany | 25/1 | 25/1 | 16/1 |
| 15. | Belgium | 30/1 | 30/1 | 18/1 |
| 16. | Sweden | 33/1 | 33/1 | 18/1 |
| 17. | Bulgaria | 40/1 | 40/1 | 20/1 |
| 18. | Croatia | 40/1 | 40/1 | 20/1 |
| 19. | Romania | 40/1 | 40/1 | 20/1 |
| 20. | Slovakia | 40/1 | 40/1 | 20/1 |
| 21. | Slovenia | 40/1 | 40/1 | 20/1 |
| 22. | Estonia | 50/1 | 50/1 | 22/1 |
| 23. | Finland | 50/1 | 50/1 | 22/1 |
| 24. | Ireland | 50/1 | 50/1 | 22/1 |
| 25. | Latvia | 50/1 | 50/1 | 22/1 |
| 26. | Lithuania | 50/1 | 50/1 | 22/1 |
| 27. | Malta | 50/1 | 50/1 | 22/1 |
| 28. | Luxembourg | 66/1 | 66/1 | 25/1 |
Italy is the front-runner regarding the odds of leaving the EU. Italy has held the top spot for several months since the right-wing politician Giorgia Meloni became prime minister with her "Italy first" slogan.
The discussion about Italy's EU exit has recently cooled down somewhat, but it resurfaces whenever there are major economic decisions on the Union's agenda. Both the government and the people in Italy have the desire to leave the EU, but the state's economy might not withstand it.
In 2021, Poland was strongly considering leaving the EU, and the country even voted on a law that would allow national decisions to override EU laws and regulations. The situation caused tensions, but at the same time, according to polls, over 60% of Polish citizens would have voted to remain in the EU in a referendum.
However, the current war in Ukraine is likely to keep Poland firmly attached to the EU until, at least, tensions in Eastern Europe ease.
France is one of the EU's powerhouses, and surprisingly, the odds of the country leaving the EU are relatively low. The odds date back to the spring 2022 presidential election in which Marine Le Pen said she would pull France out of the EU and NATO if she won. Although Le Pen lost the election, she garnered 41.45% of the vote, which indicates that over 13 million French people desire to get rid of the EU.
Like in the case of Poland, the war in Ukraine is likely to keep France in the EU's united front against Russia. The country's president has underlined the EU's united stand against Russia during the war in Ukraine.
As we know, the UK voted to leave the EU in a referendum in 2016, and the final Brexit came into effect in 2020. Four years later, there's been talk among the people about returning to the union, and according to recent polls, 56% now believe it was wrong to leave.
This has naturally sparked speculation about a new referendum and the UK rejoining the EU. As a country that loves political betting, bookmakers have cautiously introduced odds with headlines like "UK rejoin EU odds". Here at Bojoko, we're closely monitoring the situation and will publish the latest odds on the EU referendum if they become relevant!
