Next country to leave EU odds

By Teemu Mattila Updated:

Italy is most likely to be the next country to leave the EU - according to the latest EU exit odds. 

Following Italy, Greece is the next in line. The country has played cat and mouse with EU economic policies for years. However, bookies don't expect any European country to make quick decisions. The latest EU odds indicate that no country will leave the EU before 31/12/2025.

Below you will find the latest odds for leaving EU and a deeper analysis of the three most likely candidates for the next countries to leave the EU. 

EU exit odds April 2024

Here are the EU exit odds for all 27 EU member states.

You can bet on the probability of leaving the EU by clicking on the name of the bookmaker.

#  Country BetUK Unibet LeoVegas
1. No country to leave EU before 31/12/2025 1/7 1/7 1/7
2. Italy 8/1 8/1 8/1
3. Greece 10/1 10/1 19/2
4. Austria 14/1 14/1 12/1
5. Czech Republic 14/1 14/1 12/1
6. Poland 14/1 14/1 12/1
7. Hungary 17/1 17/1 13/1
8. France 20/1 20/1 14/1
9. Netherlands 20/1 20/1 14/1
10. Portugal 20/1 20/1 14/1
11. Spain 20/1 20/1 14/1
12. Cyprus 25/1 25/1 16/1
13. Denmark 25/1 25/1 16/1
14. Germany 25/1 25/1 16/1
15. Belgium 30/1 30/1 18/1
16. Sweden 33/1 33/1 18/1
17. Bulgaria 40/1 40/1 20/1
18. Croatia 40/1 40/1 20/1
19. Romania 40/1 40/1 20/1
20. Slovakia 40/1 40/1 20/1
21. Slovenia 40/1 40/1 20/1
22. Estonia 50/1 50/1 22/1
23. Finland 50/1 50/1 22/1
24. Ireland 50/1 50/1 22/1
25. Latvia 50/1 50/1 22/1
26. Lithuania 50/1 50/1 22/1
27. Malta 50/1 50/1 22/1
28. Luxembourg 66/1 66/1 25/1

italexit - Italy to leave EU odds

Italy is the front-runner regarding the odds of leaving the EU. Italy has held the top spot for several months since the right-wing politician Giorgia Meloni became prime minister with her "Italy first" slogan.

The discussion about Italy's EU exit has recently cooled down somewhat, but it resurfaces whenever there are major economic decisions on the Union's agenda. Both the government and the people in Italy have the desire to leave the EU, but the state's economy might not withstand it.

  Italy to leave the EU SBK Smarkets
  Yes 13 13
  No 1.1 1.1

Polexit - poland to leave EU odds

In 2021, Poland was strongly considering leaving the EU, and the country even voted on a law that would allow national decisions to override EU laws and regulations. The situation caused tensions, but at the same time, according to polls, over 60% of Polish citizens would have voted to remain in the EU in a referendum.

However, the current war in Ukraine is likely to keep Poland firmly attached to the EU until, at least, tensions in Eastern Europe ease.

  Poland to leave the EU SBK Smarkets
  Yes 23 23
  No 1.04 1.04

frexit - France to leave EU odds

France is one of the EU's powerhouses, and surprisingly, the odds of the country leaving the EU are relatively low. The odds date back to the spring 2022 presidential election in which Marine Le Pen said she would pull France out of the EU and NATO if she won.  Although Le Pen lost the election, she garnered 41.45% of the vote, which indicates that over 13 million French people desire to get rid of the EU.

Like in the case of Poland, the war in Ukraine is likely to keep France in the EU's united front against Russia. The country's president has underlined the EU's united stand against Russia during the war in Ukraine.

  France to leave the EU SBK Smarkets
  Yes 8.2 8.2
  No 1.15 1.15

Odds of UK rejoining EU

As we know, the UK voted to leave the EU in a referendum in 2016, and the final Brexit came into effect in 2020. Four years later, there's been talk among the people about returning to the union, and according to recent polls, 56% now believe it was wrong to leave.

This has naturally sparked speculation about a new referendum and the UK rejoining the EU. As a country that loves political betting, bookmakers have cautiously introduced odds with headlines like "UK rejoin EU odds". Here at Bojoko, we're closely monitoring the situation and will publish the latest odds on the EU referendum if they become relevant!

Odds for leaving EU / FAQ

Italy is most like the next country to leave the EU. Bookmakers estimate that "the boot" will leave with odds of 8/1.

The latest odds indicate that no country will leave the EU by the end of 2025. According to the odds, Italy, Greece, and Austria are the most likely leavers in the following years.

Betting on the EU referendum is legal. Many betting sites offer odds on referendum betting and which country will be the next to leave the EU. Referendum odds and betting will be red-hot if any country decides to pursue EU exit.

About the author

Teemu Mattila

Article by:

Teemu Mattila

With a career starting in 2015, Teemu has an extensive background in content writing, collaborating with global companies in Finnish and English. Since 2022, he has been working with Bojoko, focusing on sports betting and casino content, combining his passion for sports and the iGaming industry.

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