Italy is most likely to be the next country to leave the EU, according to the latest EU exit odds.
Following Italy, Greece is the next in line. The country has played cat-and-mouse with EU economic policies for years. However, bookies don't expect any European country to make quick decisions. The latest EU odds indicate that no country will leave the EU before 31/12/2025.
Below, you will find the latest odds for leaving the EU and a deeper analysis of the three most likely candidates for the next countries to leave the EU.
Here are the odds of the EU exit for all 27 EU member states.
| # | Country | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | No country to leave EU before 31/12/2025 | 1/7 |
| 2. | Italy | 8/1 |
| 3. | Greece | 10/1 |
| 4. | Austria | 14/1 |
| 5. | Czech Republic | 14/1 |
| 6. | Poland | 14/1 |
| 7. | Hungary | 17/1 |
| 8. | France | 20/1 |
| 9. | Netherlands | 20/1 |
| 10. | Portugal | 20/1 |
| 11. | Spain | 20/1 |
| 12. | Cyprus | 25/1 |
| 13. | Denmark | 25/1 |
| 14. | Germany | 25/1 |
| 15. | Belgium | 30/1 |
| 16. | Sweden | 33/1 |
| 17. | Bulgaria | 40/1 |
| 18. | Croatia | 40/1 |
| 19. | Romania | 40/1 |
| 20. | Slovakia | 40/1 |
| 21. | Slovenia | 40/1 |
| 22. | Estonia | 50/1 |
| 23. | Finland | 50/1 |
| 24. | Ireland | 50/1 |
| 25. | Latvia | 50/1 |
| 26. | Lithuania | 50/1 |
| 27. | Malta | 50/1 |
| 28. | Luxembourg | 66/1 |
Italy is the frontrunner in terms of the odds of leaving the EU. Italy has held the top spot for several months since the right-wing politician Giorgia Meloni became prime minister with her "Italy first" slogan.
The discussion about Italy's EU exit has recently cooled somewhat, but it resurfaces when major economic decisions are on the Union's agenda. Both the government and the people in Italy want to leave the EU, but the country's economy might not withstand it.
In 2021, Poland was strongly considering leaving the EU, and the country even voted on a law that would allow national decisions to override EU laws and regulations. The situation caused tensions, but at the same time, according to polls, over 60% of Polish citizens would have voted to remain in the EU in a referendum.
However, the current war in Ukraine is likely to keep Poland firmly attached to the EU until, at least, tensions in Eastern Europe ease.
France is one of the EU's powerhouses, and surprisingly, the odds of the country leaving the EU are relatively low. The odds date back to the spring 2022 presidential election, when Marine Le Pen said she would pull France out of the EU and NATO if she won. Although Le Pen lost the election, she garnered 41.45% of the vote, indicating that over 13 million French people want to leave the EU.
Like in the case of Poland, the war in Ukraine is likely to keep France in the EU's united front against Russia. The country's president has underlined the EU's united stand against Russia during the war in Ukraine.
As we know, the UK voted to leave the EU in a referendum in 2016, and the final Brexit came into effect in 2020. Four years later, there's been talk among the people about returning to the union, and recent polls show that 56% now believe it was wrong to leave.
This has naturally sparked speculation about a new referendum and the UK rejoining the EU. As a country that loves political betting, bookmakers have cautiously introduced odds with headlines like "UK rejoin EU odds". Here at Bojoko, we're closely monitoring the situation, and yes, there's a chance the UK will rejoin the EU.
There has been talk for years about the UK potentially returning to the EU, and the topic still pops up in the tabloids from time to time. The betting site Ladbrokes has its own view on the likelihood, offering odds on which year an official referendum might take place.
| Year | Odds | Probablity |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| 2026 | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| 2027 | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| 2028 | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| 2029 | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| 2030 | 20/1 | 4.76% |
Political betting has become a steady part of the UK betting scene, with markets covering everything from the next US President to the UK General Election and local by-elections. These markets move quickly and often attract sharp interest when major news breaks.
If you want to explore the operators that specialise in this area, check out our best political betting sites for a full overview.
